By the Editorial Team 

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“Answering the call of history” – on the 2023 “State of the Union” speech (SOTEU) by President Ursula von der Leyen

On 13 September 2023, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave a speech summing up her term in office – perhaps even anticipating re-election. To this end, she presented results, arguing that her Commission had managed to implement more than 90 per cent of the political guidelines it presented in 2019.

The motto of the “State of the Union” (SOTEU) 2023 speech was “Answering the call of history”. In what sense? In the sense that history is happening while Russia is waging a full-scale war against the founding principles of the United Nations (UN) Charter. The President of the Commission tried to explain to what extent the European Union (EU) is up to this challenge. But Ursula von de Leyen also demonstrated the extent to which history demands the deepening of the integration process, its “becoming”.

We have been asserting on this blog that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning, not yet very noticeable, of a new era for European integration – in other words, a third phase of European integration after the invasion of Ukraine.[1] The first phase would have lasted until the Maastricht Treaty that created the EU – since until then there was an Economic Community; the second phase that followed Maastricht allowed for the completion of the internal market, EU citizenship, the recognition of a catalogue of fundamental rights; and a third phase, post-invasion of Ukraine, is beginning to take shape with this SOTEU 2023 speech.

The President of the Commission wanted to take stock of the situation in which Europe finds itself today, in a time and place where history is being written. She argued that the future of the European continent depends on today’s opportunities, in order to complete what is lacking in integration. She said that “the people of Europe” want a Union that is their defender, in a period of competition between great powers; but also, a Union that stands by their side, as a partner and ally in their daily battles. It is important to note that Article 1 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) speaks of the “peoples of Europe” – and Ursula von der Leyen, on the other hand, speaks of the “peoples of Europe” – which is not accidental, it has great symbolism.

The existence of a European people has always been questioned – and the expression “peoples of Europe” seeks to highlight diversity, what distinguishes the Portuguese/Germans/Polish, etc. Seemingly, the President wanted to emphasise the idea that, in the current historical moment, what unites Europeans counts more than what separates them.

As such, she made an unequivocal call for the enlargement of the Union. In a world where geopolitical and economic stature and weight matter, Ursula von der Leyen understands that enlargement of the Union serves Europe’s best interests in strategic and security terms. That is why she has set out a vision for a successful enlargement – that is, a Union with more than 500 million people, who live freely, in democracy and prosperity, otherwise it would not be worth it. It is not a question of choosing between deepening integration or expanding the Union – because it is possible and necessary to do both, the President said, as the EU’s geopolitical weight and capacity to act depend on it. Furthermore, this is what the EU has always done, explained Ursula von der Leyen, as each wave of enlargement has led to political deepening, from coal and steel to full economic integration. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, it was possible to transform an economic project into a true Union of people. Hence, the President believes that the next enlargement will also be a catalyst for progress for the health Union, for the defence Union, and for the geopolitical Union.

This objective entails a Convention to amend the Treaties as needed, according to Ursula von der Leyen’s statement advocating for political integration. The notion underlying this is that the Union’s forthcoming enlargement will be as challenging for itself as it is for prospective accession candidates, if not more. It is worthy of note that some MEPs have already presented an ambitious project to amend the Treaties under Article 48 of the TEU.[2]

However, Ursula von der Leyen is resolute in her commitment to enlargement, prompting the President to forego waiting for possible changes to the Treaties. This necessitates the refinement of practical aspects, to ensure that the EU can effectively operate with over 30 Member States. The President is confident that the effectiveness of the decision-making process will not suffer with each enlargement. She provides instances of this: an agreement on NextGenerationEU at 27 was achievable, as was an agreement on the acquisition of vaccines at 27 and on sanctions against Russia at 27. Additionally, an agreement on the acquisition of natural gas was reached at 27, this time encompassing Ukraine, Moldova, and Serbia.

Therefore, the President insisted, the time has come for the EU to write its own destiny. To this end, it is vital to reflect and debate the future of the EU budget,[3] in terms of what it finances, how it finances it, and how it is financed. For example, as explained by Elisa Ferreira (the European Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms) a few days ago, the EU cannot finance housing immediately as it would be unfeasible. Instead, the EU must allocate its budget where it can make the most effective impact.[4] According to the Commissioner, the aim of cohesion policy is to get ahead of problems, not to chase them down. Member States and regions must align their future aspirations with the use of European funds to ensure a long-term vision. It is necessary for them to know their intended position in advance in order to avoid dependency on cohesion funds, which are not intended to solve immediate problems without future planning. In the recent European Parliament debate on the European Social Agenda, Nicolas Schmidt (the European Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs) clarified that while it is the responsibility of Member States to provide housing, there are tools at the European level to support them. As the housing crisis has taken on a European dimension, there is a need for coordinated action and NextGenerationEU resources can be used to provide access to housing.

Furthermore, it is crucial to establish reliable security commitments in a world where deterrence takes on unfathomable dimensions. Ursula von der Leyen emphasised that Russian aggression has instigated a return to the logic of blocs, with attempts to influence the nations situated between these blocs. The President recognises the legitimate concerns of emerging economies about the impacts of globalisation. These economies can play a crucial role in creating a cleaner, safer and more prosperous world and, as such, are essential allies. To this end, the President is determined to lead efforts to promote an equitable rules-based global order, while ensuring a fair distribution of resources.

It is undeniable that the SOTEU 2023 speech is in tune with current times, since the invasion of Ukraine has brought the EU back to the memories of its origins. European integration came about to overcome war – and to prevent the integrated Member States from going to war with each other. Now Ursula von der Leyen is bringing back the need to react without hesitation against a war that ultimately jeopardises integration itself. Firstly, because it destroys a State that proclaims the values and principles adopted by the EU – which define the Union as a “Union of law” and which are the raison d’être of European integration.

That is why the EU will always stand by Ukraine – recognised President von der Leyen – and for as long as it takes. Whether to help keep hospitals, schools and other services running, or to step up the production of ammunition to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs. In fact, even Pope Francis – who is not known as a warmonger – recognises that without ammunition, Ukraine will perish, it will simply cease to exist. Ursula von der Leyen also announced the extension of the temporary protection regime for Ukrainians in the EU – for the four million Ukrainians who have found refuge in the Union, who have been guaranteed access to housing, healthcare and the labour market. The future of Ukraine lies in the EU – the President emphasised –, as does the future of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Georgia, because Europeans who want it must be given a prospect.

From the beginning of her speech, President von der Leyen makes it clear that she will present concrete proposals – indeed, the initial idea is to “deliver today, prepare for tomorrow”. The President foresees three major challenges for the coming year: i) the social challenge (related to labour and skills shortages), ii) the economic challenge (related to the competitiveness of European companies, with shortcomings in the way they conduct business) and iii) the economic and financial challenge (related to the fight against inflation). The President also puts forward proposals to address these challenges.

On the social challenge related to the labour market, Ursula von der Leyen spoke of “Europe’s social market economy” and gave examples of how it works. She recalled the early days of the global pandemic when everyone predicted a new wave of mass unemployment similar to that of the 1930s. She also explained how the EU defied this prediction by adopting the SURE instrument, the first European initiative to reduce working time, which saved 40 million jobs. She also recalled how the EU has relaunched the engine of its economy thanks to NextGenerationEU. She concluded by pointing out that the results are visible today, with Europe close to full employment: instead of millions of people looking for jobs, we have millions of jobs looking for people.

In fact, Europe is even a victim of its own success. Labour and skills shortages are reaching record levels – 74% of SMEs say they are facing them. At the height of the tourist season, restaurants and bars in Europe are running on reduced hours because they cannot find staff. Hospitals are postponing treatments due to a lack of nurses. Two-thirds of European companies looking for IT specialists cannot find them. At the same time, millions of parents – mostly mothers – are struggling to reconcile work and family because there are no childcare facilities. 8 million young people are not in employment, education, or training. This situation is not only a cause of personal anguish; it is also one of the biggest bottlenecks to the EU’s competitiveness. Indeed, labour shortages hamper the capacity for innovation, growth and prosperity.

In conclusion, there is an urgent need to improve access to the labour market, particularly for young people and women, said Ursula von der Leyen. Europe certainly needs qualified migrants, but above all it needs the expertise of companies and trade unions and to mobilise collective bargaining. The President recalled the birth of the European social dialogue, 40 years ago and on the initiative of Jacques Delors (at the Val Duchesse Conference) and called for a new social partners’ summit to be held next year during the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union. In other words, the President urged the social partners to take centre stage in shaping Europe’s future, both to tackle labour shortages and the new challenges posed by artificial intelligence (AI).

Furthermore, Ursula von der Leyen is convinced that Europe, together with its social partners, must lead a new global framework for AI based on three pillars: safeguards, governance, and innovation. With safeguards, she is referring to the Regulation on AI, which is in the final stages of adoption, and which was one of the flagships of her presidency. We have already critically assessed this proposal on this blog; the Regulation presents a possible solution, but the problem lies in the civilisational choice we are making in relation to a technology whose developments no one can predict, explain or control. In any case, the EU has pioneered this comprehensive legislation in the field of AI at a global level.[5]

The novelty of the President’s speech was the laying of the foundations for an AI governance system. Ursula von der Leyen proposes a body that analyses the risks and benefits of AI for humanity; she wants to ensure a global approach to understand the impact of AI on our societies. She exemplified this with the contribution of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global panel that provides policymakers with the latest scientific data on the climate. The President is convinced that a similar body is needed for AI – with scientists, technology companies and independent experts all at the same table.

In addition to the safeguards pillar and the governance pillar, the third pillar of the AI framework proposed by the President is to steer innovation responsibly. The President explained that, thanks to the investments made in recent years, Europe has become a leader in supercomputing: it has three of the five most powerful supercomputers in the world. It is important to capitalise on this reality, which is why the President announced a new initiative to open up our high-performance computers to new companies in the field of AI, so that they can test their models.

But this is only part of the work to guide innovation, as Ursula von der Leyen wants an open dialogue with those who create and implement AI. This is so that AI companies voluntarily commit to the principles of the AI Regulation, even before its entry into force. We do not fully share Madam President’s optimism regarding the possibility of defining minimum standards worldwide for the safe and ethical use of AI, but we hope with all our might that she is right.

Lastly, regarding the social challenge, it is important to highlight gender equality. The von der Leyen Presidency finalised dossiers that many considered to be blocked forever, such as the directive on gender balance on corporate boards, the directive on pay transparency, or the EU’s historic accession to the Istanbul Convention on women’s rights. This concerns issues as basic as enshrining in law the basic principle of equal pay for equal work. There is not a single argument to justify a woman being paid less than a man when she performs the same type of work. President von der Leyen is now committed to the proposal to combat violence against women, as well as recognising another basic principle: “No means no”. It is surprising that this has not yet been enshrined in law, but there can be no real equality as long as there is violence, Ursula von der Leyen said (rightfully).

From our point of view, however, there is one observation to be made about this SOTEU 2023 speech. It does not highlight with the impact it deserves an issue for which, moreover, no possible or viable answers are yet in sight: the issue of migration, and in particular the issue of refugees, which needs to be tackled quickly and with the same urgency as enlargement. On this point, the renewal of the Pact on Migration (a purely political agreement) in June 2022 is clearly insufficient. However, it will be a first step and, given that the history of integration is one of overcoming crises, there is hope that, in due course (which is urgent!), Europe will also be able to overcome this problem without plunging us into an irreversible political and humanitarian crisis.

The solution to the migration issue is unlikely to be unanimously agreed by the Member States. This is the added value of the EU, which, since the Schuman Declaration of 9 May 1950, has functioned and developed as a federative system based on political and legal commitments, in which decisions taken by qualified majority are binding on Member States that disagree with them by virtue of the principle of European loyalty [Article 4(3) TEU] – according to which the Union and the Member States respect and assist each other in fulfilling the obligations arising from the Treaties, irrespective of the timing of national elections. No one was deceived about the basic principles of integration when they joined the EU.

In conclusion, the volatility of the global situation, the latest terrible episode of which erupted a few days ago in the Gaza Strip, makes it necessary to anticipate geopolitical developments – and how the various events relate to each other. The President of the European Commission provided some food for thought on the future priorities for the EU’s autonomy, resilience, and competitiveness – that is, for the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 to be adopted by the European Council next June.[6] Are the leaders of the Union and the Member States up to the challenge of history? In other words, are they prepared to make the hard choices that history demands – and to commit to implementing them, perhaps at the expense of their immediate popularity and electoral fortunes?

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[1] Cf. Pedro Froufe, “30 years after “Maastricht”: the past and the future of integration (marking Europe’s Day)”, The Official Blog of UNIO – Thinking & Debating Europe, editorial of May 2023, 17 May 2023, https://officialblogofunio.com/2023/05/17/editorial-of-may-2023/.

[2] See European Parliament, Proposals of the European Parliament for the amendment of the Treaties, 2022/2051(INL), https://oeil.secure.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/ficheprocedure.do?lang=en&reference=2022/2051%28INL%29.

[3] In 2023, the Union Budget was, in total, 186.6 billion Euros – which does not exceed 1% of the Union’s global GDP. See Isabel Marques da Silva, “Reforço do orçamento da UE será difícil batalha política”, Euronews, 4 September 2023, https://pt.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/04/reforco-do-orcamento-da-ue-sera-dificil-batalha-politica.

[4] See Commissioner Elisa Ferreira’s statements to the “Expresso” newspaper at: https://expresso.pt/economia/economia_imobiliario/2023-09-15-Elisa-Ferreira-Onde-vamos-parar-se-formos-financiar-a-habitacao–a5822075#:~:text=A%20comiss%C3%A1ria%20europeia%20Elisa%20Ferreira%20considerou%20esta%20sexta-feira%2C,objetivo%20se%20sujeitos%20a%20vis%C3%A3o%20de%20longo%20prazo.

[5] On this theme see Alessandra Silveira and Maria Inês Costa, “Regulating Artificial Intelligence (AI): on the civilisational choice we are all making”, The Official Blog of UNIO – Thinking and Debating Europe, Editorial of July, 17 July 2023, https://officialblogofunio.com/2023/07/17/editorial-of-july-2023/.

[6] On the EU Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 see https://consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/strategic-agenda-2024-2029/

Picture credits: Photo by Jonas Horsch on Pexels.com.